From the May export data, the impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports is smaller than expected, which shows that China's export recovery is better than market expectations, but the future situation of foreign trade is still not optimistic.
In May, China's foreign trade exports reached US $131 billion 760 million, an increase of 48.5%, up 18.1 percentage points from the previous month, and its growth rate hit a new high since 2007 March. Analysts pointed out that in May, China's high export growth, benefiting from lower base factors during the same period last year, but also under the background of the economic recovery in the world, the result of the recovery of external demand growth. Experts predict that China's foreign trade will increase steadily this year.
According to customs statistics, the first 5 months, China's total import and export value of 1 trillion and 100 billion 90 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 44% over the same period last year. Among them, exports of 567 billion 740 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 33.2%; imports of 532 billion 350 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 57.5%; trade surplus of $35 billion 390 million, down 59.9%.
Before May Chinese EU bilateral trade growth of 37.4%, the European debt crisis is less than the expected impact of the debt crisis in Europe and the world economy "bottom two" concerns and other factors, the foreign trade data in May attracted much attention. Most analysts believe that from the May export data, the impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports is smaller than expected, which shows that China's export recovery is better than market expectations. Judging from the current situation, the impact of the European debt crisis on China's import and export is not very great.
In the first 5 months of this year, China's bilateral trade with the EU amounted to $177 billion 490 million, an increase of 37.4%. Over the same period, bilateral trade between China and the United States amounted to $138 billion 680 million, an increase of 28.2%. ASEAN has surpassed Japan by a small margin, becoming China's third largest trading partner. Bilateral trade amounted to $111 billion 800 million, an increase of 57.5%. Over the same period, China's bilateral trade with Japan amounted to $111 billion 560 million, an increase of 38.8%.
Galaxy Securities Macro Analyst Zhou Shiyi said: "despite the recent turmoil in the European financial markets, the European economic outlook is still promising."." According to data released on May 27th by the US Economic Advisory Council, the euro zone's leading indicators for April rose 0.9% to 110.4 points, up 1.2% and 0.5% respectively in the previous two months. This shows that the recovery is continuing after the recession, and that the leading indicators have returned to a steady upward course, suggesting a modest rebound in economic activity in the second half of this year.
Meanwhile, the US economy has continued to improve. Zhou Shi said: "in a good environment of real estate is stable, the economy stabilizes, employment began to improve under the U.S. consumer confidence." In May, the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 63.3 for the third month in a row, and consumer expectations rose to their highest level since August 2017.